Solo Chance
Enter your hashrate and see the odds against live network difficulty — per block, day, year, and until the next halving.
Chance per year. Average 15.9K years — every block restarts the draw.
With 1,00 TH/s, chance per year
It can hit on any block — every draw starts over.
On average that's ~19.1K years — but a lottery is not an average.
Hashrate, live difficulty, and the lottery math.
Every TH/s is a ticket in the next-block lottery.
Chance per block, day, year, and until the next halving — with today's difficulty.
What that is worth in Mega-Sena tickets, plus the expected wait.
Odds, solo mining, and the question that never dies: is it worth it?
The chance depends on your hashrate and current network difficulty. Average time to find a block is (difficulty × 2³²) ÷ hashrate in hashes per second. From there, the probability of finding at least one block in a window follows a Poisson distribution. That's exactly what the calculator above does, using live network difficulty.
A Bitaxe delivers about 1 to 2 TH/s. At today's network difficulty, that's a per-block chance in the tens of millions to one. Tiny, but real — home solo miners have found blocks. Type 1 TH/s into the calculator to see today's exact numbers.
In solo mining you point your hardware at a solo pool (CKPool or Parasite) using your own address. If one of your workers finds a block, the entire reward is yours — instead of splitting small, constant payouts like a traditional pool. All or nothing.
Yes, and it's linear: double the hashrate means double the tickets and half the expected wait. But every block is an independent draw, so hashrate never guarantees a block by a date — it only improves the odds.
Financially it's a high-variance bet: you can go years with nothing, then land a full block. Plenty of people solo mine for the hobby, the learning, and the lottery ticket. Use the calculator to size your odds before you decide.
The club operation is mining right now — watch it live, or price what this lottery costs.